North American Crude

Overview

EAI, Inc.’s latest North American Crude Supply, Logistics, Refining and Pricing Outlook study represents its most comprehensive North American Crude Study ever. Learn firsthand why this study, associated information resources, one-on-one client seminars, and support consultation have served all segments of the industry for over twenty years. The North American Crude study provides integrated geographical insights and outlooks as shown below with detailed insights into specific crude grade commodities (heavy crude, heavy crude-high TAN subset, light crude grades, etc.) in addition to focus on major industry business segments including upstream production, transportation logistics, refining, crude trading, and marketing and the players across these industry segments.

There are a number of key insights and outlooks spanning the integrated crude business for each relevant geographical area as well as business segment specific insights and information resources addressing refining at the plant and hub level, pipeline logistics at the corridor and asset level and crude production at the basin and grade level of detail. EAI, Inc.’s North American Crude Study, the North American Shale Fairway Crude Study, and the Gulf Coast Crude Deep Dive study plus customized information, analytics, and study building block assembly are addressed as options in and detailed further in the North American Crude Supply, Logistics, Refining and Pricing Outlook 2019 Study summary. Some highlights from the North American Crude study are itemized below with more detail available in the summary that is available for download.

Integrated North American Shale Fairway Outlook and Regional Insights

EAI, Inc. has updated its analysis of the Western Canada, Rocky Mountain, U.S. Central Corridor and Gulf Coast regional crude business areas including interaction with Latin American (LAM) and other global crude streams. This includes examination and update of 85 plus refinery profiles, update of all key pipeline projects as well as alternative rail transportation options and current and future likely crude flows and capacity needs and production outlooks for all areas by basin and crude grade.

• Heavy Crude Balance Dynamics
• Gulf Coast Market
• U.S. Central Corridor-Cushing and Gateway to Gulf Coast
• Bakken and Eagle Ford Shifts

Western Canada Deep Dive Analysis and Outlook

Integrated oil and crude resource centric companies in Western Canada have shifted investments to heavy oil/bitumen production and reduced spending on upgrading projects in consideration of the light crude production ramp-up across North America. SAGD and bitumen mining projects continue to expand although with growing concern about market access limitations and the outlook for light – heavy crude price spreads. EAI, Inc. provides its latest outlook for Western Canada production streams, upgrading projects and heavy/bitumen production projects integrated with an assessment of pipeline capabilities and projects, current supply logistics. Rail projects are expanding to transport heavy crude to market reducing the need for condensate and routing to markets that are currently not accessible via pipeline.

Learn why the U.S. –Gulf Coast heavy crude market will continue to grow as the most valuable outlet for growing Canadian heavy crude production potential. Increasing heavy crude needs in the Midwest and Midcontinent coupled with replacement of LAM origin crude and increasing Gulf Coast refinery take of heavy crude will shift southbound movements from predominately light crude to predominately heavy crude movements during the mid-term part of EAI, Inc.’s outlook.

Latin American Crude Production, Refining, and Balance Outlook

EAI, Inc. has updated its outlook for Latin American production, refining and crude export potential providing insights into each country and drivers for supporting and expanding both upstream production and downstream refining projects. This bottom-up work is integrated into a composite outlook for LAM crude production, internal processing and likely export patterns in consideration of the U.S. as well as non-Western Hemisphere markets.

• Heavy Crude Outlook
• Light Petroleum Dynamics
• Brazilian Pre-Salt Santos Basin

West Coast Crude Outlook Summary

EAI, Inc. provides a summary of its U.S. West Coast crude outlook derived from its latest West Coast Crude Supply, Logistics and Refining Outlook. Higher priced foreign crudes, a declining gasoline market and increasing competition from peripheral refining centers (WTX-NM, Rocky Mountains) and California’s push to implement AB32 legislation have created new challenges for West Coast refiners. EAI, Inc. addresses these factors that are re-shaping the West Coast refining and crude market.

Rocky Mountain Crude Outlook Summary

EAI, Inc. provides a summary of its Rocky Mountain Petroleum Business Analysis and Outlook study with focus on the outlook for crude production, runs and crude balances with likely surplus supply for other refinery markets. Similar to the WTX-NM and U.S. Central Corridor regions, the Rocky Mountain refinery business is enjoying an advantageous crude supply and pricing situation but limited by downstream market access. The UNEV pipeline from Salt Lake City to Las Vegas is part of the evolution of this area to capitalize on its crude advantage while the pricing advantage over coastal refineries exists. The Rocky Mountain Eastern Corridor extending from Eastern Montana to Guernsey and Denver is growing as an increasing crude source for Cushing and downstream refinery markets.

Eastern Seaboard Crude Market Outlook

The Eastern Seaboard extending from Newfoundland south to the Philadelphia-Delaware City refining areas is undergoing dramatic change as it pushes to access inland U.S., Gulf Coast and Western Canadian crude sources to compete with both domestic and foreign sources of refined products. EAI, Inc. provides its latest insights from its Gulf Coast-Eastern Seaboard Downstream Business Analysis and Outlook study to assess how refineries in this Eastern Seaboard refinery corridor are shifting their crude slates to compete in local as well as foreign product markets. Inclusive of Eastern Canada, the Northeast represents a displacement of foreign light/medium grades in the range of 1000 to 1400 MBPD depending on logistical access and grade displacement economics.

Integrated and Business Segment Specific Insights and Outlooks

• Crude Marketing, Trading, and Purchasing Functions
• Heavy Crude Analytics and Outlooks
• Light Crude Analytics and Outlooks
• Production Forecasts by Basin/Region and Grade
• Refinery Analytics and Outlooks with Linkage to the Downstream Business
• Crude Oil Transportation, Logistics, and Network Balance Forecasts

Subscribers to EAI, Inc.’s North American Crude program with receive the following deliverables:

• Five printed copies of the North American Crude study in its entirety
• Consultation on client specific topics and issues as long as they are within reasonable bounds of the original study Scope of Work
• Information and data support in Excel format
• Copies of the complete Executive Summaries, Business Component Summaries and information support tables provided on USB flash drive and or made available online
• A formal presentation presenting the program results and addressing specific Client inquiries can be provided to the Client upon request